The Best Mortgage Rates in Winnipeg

Winnipeg, Manitoba’s housing market

Not unlike elsewhere in the country, Winnipeg has seen a slowdown in its housing market due to affordability issues – mainly in response to high interest rates. Still, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), migration remains stable and/or will increase. Furthermore, Winnipeg’s economic fundamentals are relatively strong, which could lead to increased activity in the housing market going forward.

According to the Winnipeg Real Estate Board, the average price of a detached residential home in Winnipeg downtown was $150,625 in October 2023 – up 21.48% year-over-year. Residential attached homes in the same area saw an even greater increase that month – 41.99% year-over-year – which put the average price at $235,000.

This is in stark contrast to the rest of the city, with average prices in other areas mostly seeing slight decreases, with some increases here and there. For instance, the average price for a detached home in Southwest Winnipeg was $528,348 in October 2023 – down 2.76% year-over-year – while the average price for an attached home was $374,571 – down 3.81% year-over-year.

In terms of sales, most areas saw a decrease year-over-year. The most notable decrease for detached homes as of October 2023 was in Winnipeg downtown – 55.56% year-over-year, despite new listings being up 114.29%. For attached homes, the highest decrease as of October 2023 was in North Winnipeg – 35.5% year-over-year, with listings down 12.19%.

The downtown is once again an outlier here, however, with attached homes seeing a 100% increase in sales year-over-year and listings up 150%. Other parts of the city only saw decreases in attached homes sales.

The general gist here is that Winnipeg’s real estate market is slowing down from its more record-breaking days during the pandemic. Mortgage payments, on the other hand, are a different story.

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Average mortgage payments in Winnipeg

Despite home prices dropping, according to this CHMC report, monthly payments for new mortgage loans in Winnipeg were up from $1,327 in the second quarter of 2022 to $1,491 in the same quarter in 2023 – an increase of 12.35%. The provincial average also rose from $1,277 to $1,464, or 14.6%. Not to belabor the point, but high interest rates throughout the year have influenced monthly payments as the year progressed. That may change if inflation holds steady (which it seems to be as of November 2023), and the Bank of Canada begins reducing rates – perhaps, in 2025, when it expects inflation to reach that magic 2% per year rate.

Speaking of which, the Bank of Canada predicts that by 2025 and 2026, the median rates for fixed and variable mortgages will be 4.4% and 4.5%, respectively. That means homebuyers who took out loans in 2020 and 2021 will see their monthly payments increase by $420, or 30% when their mortgage is renewed.

Average value of mortgage loans in Winnipeg

Looking at the numbers from CMHC, Winnipeg’s value of new mortgage loans has dropped from $266,832 in the second quarter of 2022 to $241,536 in the same quarter in 2023 – that’s a decrease of nearly 10.5%.

The trend is the same throughout the province as well. In Manitoba mortgage payment values fell from $255,490 to $235,740 – a decline of 7.7%.

The average value of new mortgage loans, not surprisingly, has dropped, not only from quarter to quarter, but year-over-year. As interest rates have risen, new loans have dwindled, with the expense of taking a new mortgage preventing more buyers from getting into the market.

How banks and lenders determine Winnipeg mortgage rates

Banks and lenders in Winnipeg determine mortgage rates based on the same criteria as the banks in other parts of the country.

Lenders will look at the overnight rates of the Bank of Canada and determine their own rates based on those numbers. As the Bank of Canada raises rates, so too do the lenders (in general). As rates come down, so do the lender rates for mortgages in Winnipeg.

Lenders may also look at personal situations, such as the type of house being purchased, the term of the mortgage, the financial stability of the borrower and their down payment. Each lender has the power to negotiate rates with their customers to provide the best mortgage rates in Winnipeg for each situation.

For instance, in 2023, high inflation and the Bank of Canada’s action to raise interest rates, has had an enormous impact on mortgage lending rates.

The major banks have followed the Bank of Canada's lead and raised mortgage rates for consumers. This has had the effect of slowing demand and sales, leading to house prices falling as inventory grew.

The Bank of Canada has raised rates 10 times over the course of 2022 and 2023, as part of an aggressive campaign to fight inflation. The Bank recently held rates at 5% (as of November 2023).

Due to expectations of an economic downturn, bond yields that lead to fixed mortgage rates have been falling. The thinking is that inflation may be nearing its peak, but there is now also the risk of recession. In this case, lower growth and lower inflation could result in lower mortgage rates in 2024 and beyond.

Market demand can also affect mortgage rates. As demand heats up, prices for homes go up. However, competition from lenders could be a bonus for home buyers looking to buy homes, with banks offering lower rates to win business.

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Factors that determine your own mortgage rate in Winnipeg

Other than macroeconomic factors such as inflation, there are other factors that are more personal to your situation. For example:

• Credit score: This will show lenders your trustworthiness and how likely you are to pay down debt
• Down payment: The more you save and have for a down payment, the lower your rate may be. Lenders want to reduce risk and so if you have more to put down towards your house, the more you may get a lower rate.
• Type of mortgage: If you choose a fixed rate mortgage your payment and rate will stay the same throughout your full term. A variable rate mortgage will fluctuate based on the prime lending rate set by the lender.
• Mortgage loan term: Choosing fixed rate mortgages can allow you to lock into lower rates if, for example, you choose a 5-year term versus a shorter 1-year term.

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Winnipeg mortgage regulation

Mortgage regulation in Winnipeg falls under provincial jurisdiction via the Manitoba Securities Commission. The Manitoba Securities Commission is a division of the Manitoba Financial Services Agency, is an independent agency of the Government of Manitoba that protects investors and promotes fair and efficient capital markets throughout the province.

The real estate division of the Manitoba Securities Commission registers real estate brokers, salespersons and mortgage brokers, monitors brokers' trust accounts, and investigates complaints against real estate brokers, salespersons and mortgage brokers.

The Mortgage Brokers Act regulates the activities of mortgage brokers. In order to be a mortgage broker, the business or individual arranging your mortgage must be registered with The Manitoba Securities Commission. Registration ensures the person you are dealing with has the proper training and resources necessary to conduct business in a way that will protect your interests. The Manitoba Securities Commission can also investigate complaints involving mortgage brokers and can often assist in resolving your complaint. The Commission can also hold hearings and issue orders to protect the public.

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How to find the best mortgage rates in Winnipeg

Every homebuyer is different. Needs, affordability and requirements will dictate the best tips for each. Here are some general tips that will help with the homebuyers' journey in Manitoba.

1. Find out what you can comfortably afford.
2. As best as possible, deal with and settle your current debt.
3. Assess your savings and determine how much you can afford for a down payment.
4. Know what you want and how long you will be there. For example: do you plan to grow your family? Is commuting a problem? Is transit accessible?
5. Know what’s out there. Use sites like RATESDOTCA to know the market and what Manitoba mortgage rates are available to someone in your financial situation.
6. Look into First-Time Homebuyers Incentive.

First-Time Homebuyers Incentive

• The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive is a shared-equity mortgage with the Government of Canada, which offers:
• 5% or 10% for a first-time buyer's purchase of a newly constructed home
• 5% for a first-time buyer's purchase of a resale (existing) home
• 5% for a first-time buyer's purchase of a new or resale mobile/manufactured home

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