Ask the Mortgage Expert: Why this could be your window of opportunity into Canadian real estate

Ask the Expert is a monthly column where Steve Garganis, lead mortgage planner at Mortgage Architects and founder of CanadaMortgageNews.ca dives into what’s going on with mortgage rates and the Canadian housing market. Have a question for Steve on home buying and your mortgage? Reach out to us at media@rates.ca.

The Canadian real estate market, as we all know, has been a rollercoaster. We've seen the highs, the wild bidding wars, and then the cooling period as interest rates climbed. But here we are, in July 2025. I'm here to tell you that for the savvy buyer, today might just be that sweet spot you've been waiting for.

You've heard the chatter: "overvalued," "affordability crisis," "wait for prices to drop." And sure, even cutting through the noise, if you're expecting a 2021-style market frenzy, you'll be disappointed.

But short of that, here are reasons why now presents a unique window of opportunity.

Interest rates are stabilizing (and perhaps declining)

We've seen the Bank of Canada make big moves over the years. But while we're not back to rock-bottom rates, the aggressive hikes are behind us. The market is adjusting to a new reality.

What does that mean for you?

First, there’s less uncertainty around your mortgage payments. And with some economists forecasting further modest rate cuts through 2025 and 2026, locking in a rate now – or considering a variable option – could put you in a very strong position as borrowing costs potentially ease further.

This is a far cry from the rapidly escalating rates we battled just a year or two ago.

Plus, if the Bank of Canada continues to pause or cut rates, as many expect it will (with forecasts suggesting the policy rate could reach 2.25% by the end of 2025), your monthly payments on a variable rate mortgage will decrease.

This isn't just about saving a few bucks; it's about saving potentially hundreds or even thousands of dollars in interest over your mortgage term, with more of your payments going towards the principal.

Historically, variable rates have outperformed fixed rates over a full mortgage cycle. While we can’t predict the future with 100% certainty, the current economic tea leaves strongly suggest we're moving into an "easing phase." This means that the risk of rates suddenly skyrocketing is significantly lower than it was a couple of years ago.

A more balanced market (in many regions)

Forget the desperate bidding wars of yesteryear.

In many parts of Canada — particularly in the historically hot markets of Ontario and British Columbia — we're seeing increased inventory. This isn't a collapse; it's a normalization.

More listings mean more choice for buyers, and critically, more negotiating power. You're no longer fighting tooth and nail against a dozen other offers. Instead, you have the luxury of due diligence, of making a conditional offer, and potentially, of getting a better deal.

Provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic regions are even seeing steady growth, proving that opportunity isn't uniform, but it's certainly out there.

Related: How much (more) money do you need to make to buy a home in Canada?

Pent-up demand is waiting in the wings

Think about all those potential buyers who sidelined themselves when rates were skyrocketing and competition was fierce. They haven't disappeared. There's a significant amount of pent-up demand just waiting for the right moment.

As confidence returns and borrowing costs become more predictable, these buyers will re-enter the market. You want to be ahead of that curve, not scrambling when the floodgates open.

Long-term fundamentals remain strong

Canada's population continues to grow, albeit with some recent policy adjustments to immigration targets. This underlying demand for housing isn't going away. Furthermore, we still face a chronic supply shortage in many urban centers.

Governments are working on plans to accelerate building, but these initiatives take time. The basic economic principle of supply and demand suggests that in the long run, Canadian real estate will continue to be a sound investment.

A chance to re-evaluate and strategize

This calmer market allows for a strategic approach.

Are you a first-time homebuyer? Recent mortgage reforms, such as extended amortization periods for some, might make homeownership more attainable.

Are you an investor? Consider regions with stronger price momentum or niche property types like purpose-built rentals.

The key is to assess your financial situation, understand your local market dynamics, and work with a trusted mortgage professional to map out a plan.

Don't trap yourself by waiting for the bottom

Predicting when the absolute bottom will come is like catching a falling knife. What we have right now is a market that's taking a breath; a moment of equilibrium where genuine buyers have an advantage.

Yes, there are economic uncertainties, including trade tensions, but the Bank of Canada is keenly aware of their impact on the economy and is adjusting monetary policy accordingly. This is a time for calm, calculated decisions, not panic.

This is the time to consult a mortgage broker.

Why? Because unlike a bank, which is limited to its own products, a broker has access to a wide range of lenders and mortgage options. They can look at your unique financial profile, understand your goals, and then shop around to find the best possible rate and terms for you. They can walk you through the nuances of variable versus fixed rates, explain the penalties, and help you determine which option truly aligns with your personal circumstances

So, if you've been dreaming of homeownership or expanding your real estate portfolio, today could be your day. Do your homework, get your finances in order, and don't be afraid to make a move.

The window of opportunity might not stay open forever.