If you are not redirected within 30 seconds, please click here to continue.
If you are not redirected within 30 seconds, please click here to continue.
If you are not redirected within 30 seconds, please click here to continue.
Rates are based on an average mortgage of $300,000
Insured | 80% LTV | 65% LTV | Uninsured | Bank Rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-year fixed rate | 4.99% | 5.75% | 5.75% | 6.74% |
7.49%
|
2-year fixed rate | 6.09% | 5.64% | 5.64% | 6.24% |
7.09%
|
3-year fixed rate | 5.49% | 5.69% | 5.69% | 5.69% |
6.70%
|
4-year fixed rate | 5.39% | 5.39% | 5.39% | 5.49% |
6.49%
|
5-year fixed rate | 4.99% | 5.24% | 5.24% | 5.39% |
5.74%
|
7-year fixed rate | 5.49% | 5.44% | 5.44% | 5.85% |
6.70%
|
10-year fixed rate | 6.09% | 6.14% | 6.14% | 6.25% |
7.25%
|
3-year variable rate | 6.10% | 6.50% | 6.50% | N/A |
8.60%
|
5-year variable rate | 5.95% | 6.10% | 6.10% | 6.25% |
6.75%
|
HELOC rate | 7.20% | 7.20% | 7.20% | 7.20% | N/A |
Stress test | 6.99% | 7.24% | 7.24% | 5.25% | N/A |
Rates in the bond market took a downturn in July. Seemingly overnight, investors' anxiety over inflation morphed into worries about an economic slowdown.
But despite falling yields, market expectations for the first Bank of Canada rate hike haven't changed all that much. We're still looking at mid-next year for that, say economists.
What has changed is market expectations of how high rates could go when the Bank is finished tightening monetary policy.
"...Markets no longer expect the BoC to breach the peak rate seen in the 2017/18 tightening cycle," said CIBC Capital Markets last week. The "terminal" rate for Canada is now expected to be about 1.75%, or 1.50 percentage points higher than today.
"Similarly, markets now see the Fed topping-out nearly four [25-bps] hikes below the peak in their prior cycle, which ended in 2019."
Here's more of what the market expects...
The predictions that follow are based on Bank of Canada forecasts and implied (future or forward) rates in the bond market. Take them with a pinch of salt, as implied market forecasts are forever subject to change.
The 5-year fixed (insured, insurable or uninsured)
The 3-year variable (insured)
The 5-year hybrid (insured, insurable or uninsured)
Glossary: Insured: A mortgage that has customer-paid default insurance (typically purchases with less than a 20% down payment); Insurable: A mortgage that has lender-paid default insurance and 20% equity or more; Uninsured: A mortgage without default insurance (this includes all refinances, all amortizations over 25 years, purchases of properties over $1 million, non-owner-occupied rental properties and other mortgages not meeting default-insurance rules).
Reader note: The generalized guidance above doesn't apply to all because everyone's circumstances are different. It's a good idea to consult a mortgage professional for advice focused on your personal finances, goals and five-year plan.
"Current Lowest Rate" is based on the lowest nationally available uninsured rates.
"Fair Value" is where the lowest rate should be given current bond yields and historical spreads.
These values are as of July 22, 2021:
* Lowest nationally available mortgage rates.
The economy continues its recovery. Here are the main indicators worth watching:
Current | Projection (In One Year) | Summary | |
---|---|---|---|
Bank of Canada overnight rate |
0.25% | 0.50% | The first BoC rate increase is still slated for the second half of 2022 |
Prime rate |
2.45% | 2.45% | Based on the median consensus of forecasts from the Big 6 banks. |
5yr bond yield |
0.79% | 1.04% | The bond market expects the 5yr bond yield to be 0.25%-pts higher 12 months from now. |
Average 5yr fixed rate |
2.07% | 2.96% (in 2026) | This represents today's best nationally available uninsured 5-year fixed rate plus the projected increase in Canada's 5-year yield by 2026. |
Bank of Canada overnight rate
Prime rate
5yr bond yield
Average 5yr fixed rate
Stay on top of our latest offers, relevant news and tips!