Mapping risks across Ontario as
home insurance premiums rise
6.2% YoY in 2026

Ontario home insurance premiums are up 6.2% year-over-year in 2026, according to the latest Rates.ca Home Insuramap data. A new interactive map tool premiered with our 2026 report allows users to track five risks across Ontario neighbourhoods:  

• Flood: Exterior sources: Risk of flooding from external sources, such as heavy rainfall, snowmelt, or overflowing rivers.
• Flood: System backup: Risk of water damage from flooding originating from backed up sewers, sump pumps, and septic tanks.
• Wind/Hail: Risk of damage to homes from strong winds—such as those from storms, tornadoes and derechos, and hail.
• Crime (theft): Risk is based on theft and the expected value of stolen goods, taking into account both the frequency and severity of theft, and excludes other types of crime, such as assault, arson, etc.
• Wildfire: Risk of damage from wildfire and smoke. 

A few important definitions to understand our risk scoring metrics:

• High-risk profile: reflects a score of high or extreme risk in three or more perils
• Low-risk profile: reflects a score of low to medium risk in three or more perils 

Due to a combination of these risk factors, premiums rose YoY in 157 or 82.2% of Ontario cities in 2026. On the low end, premiums fell as much as 7.1% YoY. A little over 95% of neighbourhoods have a low-risk profile. For 2026, the average estimated home premium for the whole province stands at $2,235 per year.

Insuramap premiums were retrieved using the profile of a homeowner in their 40s living in a 2,500-square-foot detached house. The risk assessment data was supplied separately by a leading global insurance data, analytics, and technology provider. Check our full methodology* to find out how we determined premiums and risk scores.

This report will delve into the reasons behind the pricing as well as provide a full breakdown of the least and most expensive cities for home insurance in Ontario. 

Most expensive cities for home insurance in Ontario  

Cochrane, a town in northeastern Ontario, topped the list of most expensive annual home insurance premiums at $3,322—a 16.3% increase YoY. The town’s sole FSA (Forward Sortation Area, the first three digits of a postal code), P0L, has high risks of flood: system backup, wind/hail, and crime.

Towns with the highest premiums are between 35–48.6% above the Ontario average. All of them are in northern parts of the province, with Cochrane, South Porcupine, Chelmsford, Kapuskasing, Iroquois Falls, and Garson falling more to the west, and Fort Frances, Minakim, Emo, and Beardmore to the east. Seven of the top 10 cities are repeats from 2025, including Cochrane, Fort Frances, South Porcupine, Minaki, Emo, Chelmsford, and Kapuskasing.  

None of this is surprising. Northern cities have historically had higher premiums than their southern counterparts. Many of these cities are in remote areas, which often equates to high rebuild costs and poor access to essential amenities and services.

Source: proprietary Rates.ca quotes; green highlights show ranking repeated two years.

Steve Cohen, Rates.ca’s VP of Insurance and Chief Underwriting Officer, explains that insurance companies often factor in proximity to fire services and hydrants when pricing home insurance policies. In addition, fewer contractors in those areas leads to higher demand for their labour, and therefore, higher costs. Building components also tend to be in short supply in those localities, necessitating additional transportation costs. 

Least expensive cities for home insurance in Ontario  

The top 10 cities with lowest annual home insurance costs in 2026 are located in southern Ontario. Premiums for all 10 cities track well below the 2026 provincial average and two cities show YoY premium increases. Four of these cities: Concord, Whitchurch-Stouffville, Waterdown, and Aurora also featured in the least expensive list in 2025.

Aurora, Whitchurch-Stouffville, and some areas in Burlington, Guelph, and Woodbridge have a low-risk profile that aligns with their least expensive premium ranking. But in other areas, home insurance pricing is nuanced and not always directly correlated to peril scores.

FSAs in Newmarket and Concord, have a low-risk profile for four perils, but score high on crime. Four of Burlington’s five FSAs and one of two Woodbridge neighbourhoods are on the high end of the risk spectrum for wind/hail and crime. Similarly, the two Stratford FSAs and two of six Guelph neighbourhoods face high risk of wind/hail.

What are key risks driving premium increases?  

We have identified that crime (theft), system backup, and wind/hail are some of the most prevalent risk factors in Ontario, while wildfires and floods impact only small pockets of the province.  

Source: proprietary Rates.ca quotes; peril scoring from global insurance data, analytics, and technology provider; AI-generated infographic.

Most FSAs in Ontario pay annual premiums of $2,000 to $2,500. Out of 340 FSAs in this premium range, two FSAs—N8S and N8X—are at a high risk of floods from exterior sources, both of which are in Windsor. N8X has the higher premium at $2,471 or 10.6% above the provincial average, possibly because, in addition to flood, it has a high-risk profile across three more perils: system backup, wind/hail, and crime (theft).

There are only 13 more FSAs in this premium range at a high risk of the same three perils. Among them is L6S in Brampton, which has the second-highest premium in this bracket, after N8X in Windsor, at $2,289 or 2.4% above the provincial average.

In the $1,500 to $2,000 premium range, six out of 90 FSAs rank high across at least three perils, with L5N in Mississauga having the highest premium of the group at $1,990 per year or 11.0% below the provincial average. The three overlapping perils are again system backup, wind/hail, and crime (theft). All six FSAs have premiums below the provincial average.

In the above $2,500 premium range, there are two FSAs with a high-risk profile across the common perils like system backup, wind/hail, and crime (theft). These areas are N8M in Essex and P0L in Cochrane, with the latter having the highest premium in Ontario, at $3,322 or 48.6% above the provincial average.

In this premium range, Sudbury FSAs track as high risk in three different perils: wildfire, system backup, and wind/hail, with an average premium of $2,684 or 20.1% above the provincial average.

The premium range has only one FSA with a high risk of flood from exterior sources: P4R in Timmins, with a premium of $3,128 or 40.0% above the provincial average.

Though crime (theft) appears prominent across all these premium ranges, it is worth noting that severe weather still accounts for most property damage in the province.

The latest report by Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ) shows that catastrophes from extreme weather events cost over $2.4 billion in insured losses nationwide in 2025. An ice storm that hit parts of Ontario and Quebec in late March 2025 cost over $490 million.

According to Daniel Ivans, Rates.ca insurance expert and licensed insurance broker, crime‑related home insurance claims remain relatively minor compared to claims driven by weather‑related events.

“Flooding, severe storms, wildfires, and other climate‑driven losses continue to far outweigh theft or break‑and‑enter claims in both frequency and severity,” he says.  

High risks of wind/hail and system backup across Ontario   

by Arshi Hossain

High risk of wind/hail hits 35.4% of Ontario's postal codes. System backup threatens another 32.5%. Our risk data covering all 517 FSAs across Ontario shows system backup concentrates in older urban cores, while wind/hail spreads evenly province-wide. The 7% of FSAs where both risks overlap face compounded vulnerability.

Between 2015 and 2025, property insurance premiums in Canada inflated 78% cumulatively—nearly double the G7 average, according to Dr. Jason Thistlethwaite, associate professor at the University of Waterloo's School of Environment, Enterprise, and Development.  

"I have no problem calling it a property insurance affordability crisis," he says, projecting continued 10% annual increases.  

Dual risk-exposed areas

For roughly 7% of Ontario where both risks overlap, neighbourhoods carry a double risk premium. Flood risk in Canada follows a stark pattern. "One percent of properties account for 40% of the annual damage," Dr. Thistlethwaite says. "It's basically the same properties over and over, and over again." When insurers identify areas with recurrent losses—system backups hitting repeatedly, wind and hail claims clustering—they price accordingly, not just for those who filed claims, but for everyone sharing the risk profile.

David Mayer, Director of Insurance at Rates.ca, confirms this: "If a handful of streets generate a disproportionate number of sewer or water damage claims, that entire FSA can absorb the repricing, including neighbours that never filed a claim."

Two Ontario FSAs carry the highest combined burden: extreme wind/hail risk layered over high system backup exposure. K4K Clarence-Rockland tracks with its dual risk: $2,327, 4.1% above average, up 5.8% annually.

Postal codes N0A and M6B score high on two of five perils: system backup and crime, with above average annual insurance costs.  

Singular risks for certain areas can be significantly impactful as insurers weigh certain risks higher than others when setting insurance rates. Thunder Bay’s P7J faces extreme system backup but low to moderate risk on the other four perils. P7J premiums sit 28.1% above the provincial average. Similarly, premiums track above the 2026 average in P3Y, L9X, L0B, L0A, and L0R neighbourhoods with an extreme rating in a singular risk category of wind/hail.

In some instances, risk scores and premiums don’t always align given insurance rates are a combination of variables. K6H Cornwall sits below average at $2,203 and Ottawa’s K2S with extreme risk for wind/hail and a high scoring in system backup and crime (theft) shows premiums decline 1.7% YoY, 6.3% below average. Similarly, L5N in Mississauga tracks 11% below average, down 2.4% YoY with high risk in three perils: system backup, wind/hail, and crime (theft). 

System backup is concentrated in urban cores

While wind and hail disperses across Ontario, system backup concentrates in older urban municipalities. 50% of the flagged FSAs for system backup risk sit in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA)—Toronto, North York, Etobicoke, Scarborough, plus Brampton, Mississauga, and Hamilton.

Thistlethwaite explains why losses run high: "You have a lot of people with a lot of property that's worth a lot of money." GTHA basements aren't bare concrete, they're finished living spaces with expensive utilities. "When your heating system gets wet, that gets very expensive."

High density, high values, and aging infrastructure create costly claims.

Etobicoke shows the starkest concentration: 100% of its FSAs flag high for system backup risk, with 2026 premiums averaging $2,290, up 4.1% YoY. Three FSAs saw double-digit spikes—M9R jumped 14.7%, M9P 12.9%, M9A 9.9% in one year.

Many older Toronto neighbourhoods still run on combined sewers—stormwater and sewage sharing one pipe. "They're not supposed to be combined. But unfortunately, you do have a lot of that infrastructure," Thistlethwaite says. When intense downpours hit, the system fails. Water enters through drains, below-grade windows, and basement openings, flooding finished spaces.  

Across all 168 high-risk FSAs, 57.1% show premiums above the provincial average. 

Coverage gap behind your home’s weather risk

When people hear "flood," they picture overland flooding. But flooded basements often result from system backup—water forced up through drains when the system is overwhelmed.

Overland flood and system backup are separate, optional endorsements. Wind/hail is included in many comprehensive policies. Many homeowners assume "water is water", until they're not covered.

Kiva Bottero, director of Green Building Canada explains: "When a sewer backup happens, aging infrastructure is usually the reason. But whether or not your home actually floods largely comes down to building design and what protective measures are in place."

Homeowners can't fix municipal infrastructure, but they can control how their property responds when it fails.

What homeowners can actually do

For those in high-risk areas watching premiums climb, start with essentials, then layer in what you can afford.

For system backup:

• Install a backwater valve and sump pump with battery backup—both qualify for insurance discounts. As of May 2026, Toronto offers subsidies up to $6,650.
• Disconnect downspouts to catch water in rain barrels or divert into rain gardens.
• Ensure water flows away from foundation, neighbours, and road with proper slope.
• Add green infrastructure (rain gardens, swales, green roofs) to reduce sewer burden during storms.

"Since water damage is the number one home insurance claim in Ontario, if you're in an area at risk of sewer backup, it's worth focusing on retrofitting efforts," Bottero says.

Beyond that, she advises redirecting water to ground level.  

For wind/hail: Replace your roof with Class 4 impact-resistant metal roofing. "Roofs take the most damage, so if you're going to make one change, change your roof," Bottero says.

For double risk-exposed FSAs, a roof upgrade paired with a backwater valve and sump pump covers the highest impact bases. 

Why high risk of crime doesn’t mean higher insurance premiums

by Aya Al-Hakim

More than half of Ontario—267 of 517 FSAs—score high on crime risk. In an insurance context, this refers to theft only and is weighted on the value of goods stolen. A high crime rating should not be taken as an indicator of frequency or prevalence of break-ins or number of claims. For example, a single claim with a high value of goods stolen could result in a high crime rating for an FSA. It also excludes other kinds of crime, such as assault or drug trafficking. An elevated risk profile for crime doesn’t translate into higher home insurance premiums.  

For example, seven of the ten least expensive FSAs in Ontario—including parts of Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Ottawa, Burlington, and Markham—all have a high-risk profile for crime. Yet their premiums remain among the lowest in the province. It’s a signal that a high crime rating alone doesn’t drive insurance pricing.

“Crime is a real input into home insurance pricing, but it is a minor one compared to water, fire, wind, and rebuild costs,” says David Mayer, Director of Insurance at Rates.ca. “The crime penalty in home insurance is far smaller than most consumers expect.”

CEO of CSP Alarms, Anas Mustafa, says homeowners are interested in newer technology and security systems that offer real-time monitoring and added control.

He noted that “with social media as well, people are more aware of crime,” which has contributed to more homeowners exploring options. Insurers also typically check for the presence of security systems when setting home insurance premiums. 

What actually drives premiums?

Across both the cheapest and most expensive markets, the same pattern emerges. Premiums tend to rise where multiple risks overlap.

In Cochrane (P0L), where system backup, wind/hail, and crime risk profiles are all elevated, the average premium reaches $3,322—about 48.6% above the provincial average and up 16.3% YoY.

South Porcupine (P0N), with high-risk profiles for crime and wind/hail, sits close behind at $3,262, up 13.6% YoY. Essex (N8M), with a high-risk profile across three risk categories, averages $2,771, with a more modest 6.3% YoY increase.

By contrast, areas where crime risk is high but other risks are more limited often see lower premiums.

In Brampton, for example, 90% of FSAs carry high crime risk, yet many of those areas still sit below the Ontario average premium of $2,235.

“Below-average home insurance premiums in Brampton aren’t necessarily a mystery or mispricing,” says Mayer. “They reflect newer housing stock, manageable claims history, and the simple fact that crime carries less weight in pricing than people think.”

That pattern holds even within the same city. In Ottawa, two neighbouring postal codes show how dramatically premiums can diverge. K1R, which carries an extreme crime score, averages $1,751, or 21.7% below the provincial average. Just one postal code over, K1K carries high crime and medium risk in system backup and wind/hail. Estimated premiums for K1K are $2,973, or 33% above average.

“That roughly 54-percentage-point spread within the same city is one of the clearest examples of how postal code pricing works,” Mayer says. “It’s not an anomaly—it shows that water risk is far more expensive to insure than crime. The risk that floods your basement costs more than the risk that breaks a window.”

In Toronto, premiums in some high-risk areas have risen over the past year, even where they remain below the provincial average.

M4W is one example. Premiums there sit just below the provincial average at $2,217 but rose 13.8% over the past year. Nearby M6B, with similar risk factors, saw an 8.3% increase and is quoted slightly above average. Several FSAs in Etobicoke have also posted YoY increases of around 9%.

Even so, the broader pattern remains consistent. While crime risk seems widespread, it is not the dominant factor shaping insurance pricing.